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9 min read Feb 27, 2024

North Carolina Real Estate Market: Predictions for 2024

North Carolina homes continued to sell at eye-popping prices last month. The median home sale price rose 4.1% year-over-year from $319,100 to $332,100 in January.

The number of homes sold declined by 0.4% YoY from 8,560 to 8,524, with only 3 months of supply. Does the scarcity of houses make North Carolina a seller’s market? Let’s look at the facts.

Hendersonville homes sold for a median sale price of $484,150 in January, up 44.1.% year-over-year. Homes in Elizabeth City sold for a median sale price of $310,700, a 36.9% increase year-over-year. There were a few markets in North Carolina where prices declined year-over-year.

Interest rates are at record highs, with few home buyers. But the inventory is low and 18.7% of homes sold above the list price!

  • If you are a home seller: You can lock in North Carolina’s high home prices. Homes listed on MLS sell faster and for 17.5% more than off-MLS homes. That could be thousands of dollars in additional proceeds if you sell via Houzeo.
  • If you are a home buyer: You can avoid bidding wars and avail seller concessions if you buy a home now. The 8.5% interest rate and mortgage payments are significant, but rates are unlikely to drop in the next few months. If they do, you can refi.

The current North Carolina real estate market statistics reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. Despite the strong housing demand, home sales tanked. The property prices in North Carolina have increased regardless.

So, How is the Real Estate Market in North Carolina?

Sluggish! Home values in North Carolina rose by 63.7% in the last 5 years.

But, home sales decreased by 0.4% in January 2024 YoY. Maybe due to the mortgage rate climbing to nearly 8%! And the number of houses for sale in NC was 38,770 in the month, 0.1% less than in 2023. North Carolina’s housing market is bearish.

The decrease in home sales can be attributed to not having enough properties in Tar Heel State. The months of supply is 3 months, which makes NC a seller’s market. So, if you want to sell a North Carolina property, now is the right time to list it on MLS.

👉 List Your North Carolina Home for Sale: Would-be buyers and buyer agents scour the MLS for turnkey properties. Start your listing for FREE!

North Carolina Real Estate Market Statistics

  • Average Home Prices: The average median home price in North Carolina is $353,300, up by 4.8% YoY. In 2024, experts predict the median sale price will increase due to the tight inventory. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 97.8%.
  • Home Sales: As per January 2024 data, home sales decreased by 20.5% YoY! In January 2024, only 12,002 homes were sold, down from 15,088 in January 2023.
  • Average Rent Prices: Rental costs vary statewide. An average tenant in Hendersonville pays $1,468, while one living in Elizabeth City pays $1,400.
  • Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 49 days, down by 1 day YoY.
  • Pending Sales: The number of homes for sale increased by 0.2% YoY compared to 2023. Currently, there are 38,770 homes for sale in North Carolina.
  • Months of Supply: The average month of supply is 3 months. NC’s demand can’t be satiated with the low supply. NC’s house scarcity is worse than the national housing market.

North Carolina Housing Market Predictions 2024

North Carolinians have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for North Carolina’s housing market:

  1. Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024: Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 will come back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to a cheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted that baby boomers looking to downsize will also add up to 30 million housing units. Yowaza!
  2. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024: Mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to 7.35% in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to 3.2%. We think the rates will remain above 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.
  3. The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise: The historically high interest rates averted buyers in 2023. But mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.
  4. Home Prices Will Continue to Rise: Home prices rose steadily in the top metros across NC YoY, reaching $353K in January 2024. Experts predict home prices will continue to rise until the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.
  5. New Home Constructions Sales Will Increase: 12.3% of homes purchased in September were new homes, the highest since 2022. Home builders offered $30,000 worth of concessions to attract buyers in 2023. We think builders and sellers will compete for buyers in 2024.
  6. iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers: iBuyers offered 104.1% of market value in 2021. They offered 86% in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad have lost billions of dollars in 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.
Bonus Prediction: Buyer Broker Commissions Will Be Negotiable!

In a shocking turn of events, the jury in Missouri awarded more than $5 billion in damages to the Sitzer-Burnett plaintiffs. This motivated nationwide home sellers to file grievances against NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.

NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule or Participation Rule states that listing brokers must offer competitive compensation to buyer agents if they want to list properties on an NAR-affiliated MLS.

Sitzer/Burnett v. NAR

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Lawsuits like Moehrl, Gibson, Batton, Nosalek, and Batton 2 challenge the Participation Rule. They accuse NAR and other top real estate companies of colluding and conspiring to keep agent commissions high.

If the jury also finds the defendants guilty in these cases, buyer agent compensation may change. Buyer agents may become obsolete by 2025! Phew.

While buyer agents are unlikely to be obsolete in 2024, they may be open to negotiating commissions. That’s probably how they will still have some skin in the game.

When Will the Housing Market Crash in North Carolina?

A housing market crash in North Carolina is unlikely.

North Carolina’s stunning mountain ranges and mild climate will continue to attract buyers. The Tar Heel State is already one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S., with a population growth rate of 2.1% in 2023.

Murfreesboro’s population has boomed by 16% since 2017, reaching around 157,500 residents in 2023. Clarksville, NC, is the second fastest-growing city in North Carolina, with its population surging 12% to nearly 171,000.

North Carolina is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts, boasting breathtaking natural beauty and a variety of activities to enjoy.

North Carolina’s job market is also strong. The unemployment rate is at 3.5%. North Carolina’s private sector employment grew by 6.4% in 2023, faster than the national average of 2.0%. And North Carolina’s friendly tax policies are a cherry on the top.

The average cost of living in North Carolina is $43,959. The median household income is $73,000. Living on the mountainous landscape of North Carolina is SO AFFORDABLE. So it is unlikely that North Carolina’s housing market would crash anytime soon.

2024: Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

2024 will be a terrific market for sellers. (And buyers, too!)

Home prices in North Carolina are rising and will continue to rise till the supply-demand dynamic changes. The number of houses for sale in NC was 38,770 in January 2024. Sellers can leverage the limited supply of homes in North Carolina to ask for better-asking prices, making it the best time to sell a house in North Carolina.

After the mortgage rate plummeted from a two-decade-high rate of 8% to 7.28% in November, new listings rose. This shows that those who refused to sell due to mortgage rate lock are finally acclimatizing to 7% rates. Come Spring 2024, more homeowners will follow suit and list properties on North Carolina MLS.

The increase in new home listings in North Carolina has also brought back home shoppers who were hugging the sidelines. In fact, the recent uptick in mortgage applications shows that buyers are returning.

House hunters who could not find affordable homes in 2023 will also start shopping in 2024. The demand for North Carolina houses will increase – and that’s why sellers may be able to dominate the market.

However, new builds will compete for attention from buyers. Home builders have persuaded buyers to buy new construction homes with mortgage buydowns worth $30K in 2023! Builders will continue offering concessions in 2024, and home sellers may have to wage wars against them.

Listings of new constructions, baby boomers looking to downsize, and desperate home sellers will flood the market in 2024. The properties for sale in North Carolina will increase. So, whether you are looking for a condo in Greensboro or a single-family primary home in Charlotte, you will find your dream home next spring.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation. Houzeo doesn’t provide any legal or financial advice. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision.

Frequently Asked Questions about North Carolina Real Estate Market

When will the housing market crash in North Carolina?

Not for the next few years. North Carolina's housing market will not crash in 2024. Despite 2023's skyrocketing interest payments and soaring home prices, North Carolinians have managed to keep the market afloat.

What are the real estate housing market 2024 predictions for North Carolina?

2024 will be a stellar market for North Carolinians. Here's our 2024 forecast for North Carolina housing market are: (1) Home sellers will return to the market come Spring 2024. (2) Number of houses for sale will increase (3) Property prices in North Carolina will increase marginally (4) Mortgage rates will stabilize in the latter half of 2024 (5) iBuyers will buy homes for lower than their fair market value. (6) Buyer agent commissions will be negotiable!

Are home prices dropping in North Carolina?

No, the property prices in North Carolina were up by 4.8% YOY in January 2024. However, you can still find some of the cheapest places to live in North Carolina. With a 63.7% rise in the past five years, exploring budget-friendly cities is crucial amid the current scarcity of available properties in NC.

Is it a good time to buy a house in North Carolina?

Yes! Currently, there are very few buyers in the market compared to the supply of homes in North Carolina. The soaring interest rates has kept buyers at bay, so you can avoid bidding wars. As the mortgage rate stabilizes in 2024, more buyers will return, so we'd recommend you to buy a house now. If mortgage payments burn a hole in your pocket, you can always refinance.

» Best Time to Buy a House in North Carolina: Find out the best time to buy a Florida property & plan your finances accordingly.

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