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12 min read Jun 26, 2023

Alabama Real Estate Market: Will it Crash in 2023?

The Alabama housing market is experiencing a major shift. The median sale price decreased by 0.65% in April 2023 year-on-year, and the number of homes sold dropped by 24.3%. New buyers are starting to enter the market as mortgage rates are falling week on week, currently at 6.79%.

The Alabama housing market is warming up, yet risks exist with potential interest rate hikes and a housing market recession.

Alabama Housing Market Update 💣

  • Buyers Have More of an Upper Hand: With a significantly slower market compared to the post-pandemic highs, Alabama is expected to see a decrease in home prices by 20%.
  • Mortgage Rates Have Almost Doubled: Mortgage rates increased 33.13% from May 2022’s 5.10% to 6.79% for the month of May, 2023.
  • Sellers are Slowly Coming Back: The number of listings increased by 72.17%. From 3,465 in December 2022.
  • It’s Taking Longer to Sell: Alabama homes stayed on the market for an average of 46 days, up from 33 days from last year.

AL Real Estate Market: At a Glance

Real Estate Market Updates


Alabama Housing Market
  • Median Sale Price: $273,500 (-0.65% YoY) 🔴
  • # of Homes Sold: 4,833 (-24.30% YoY) 🔴

The Alabama real estate market shows signs of declining buyer demand.

  • Mortgage Rates at 6.79%: Mortgage interest rates are slowly coming down, currently standing at 6.79%.
  • 0.65% Decline in Median Sale Price: The median sale price has decreased by 0.65% YoY.
  • 39.3% Longer Median Days: As buyers face affordability issues, homes are staying on the market longer. The median time to contract increased to 46 days, 13 days up YoY.
  • 101.2% Sale-To-List-Price: The number of buyers paying above the asking price has decreased. Currently, it is at 72.17%, down 1.9 points year over year.
  • 72.17% Increase in Housing Inventory: The number of listings increased by 72.17% in April 2023. From 3,465 in December 2022.

👉 Our Take: Alabama’s expanding housing inventory has led to a 0.65% YoY decrease in median sale prices. Increased affordability and favorable tax policies are drawing more buyers. Favorable real estate market conditions make it an ideal time to sell and save on commissions through AL Flat Fee MLS.

» Housing Market PredictionsHere are 13 predictions for 2023’s soft real estate market.

Short answer, no.

Several economists believe the housing market will slow down in 2023, but not crash. The Fed will play an important role in the housing market’s future, as it tries to lower inflation by increasing mortgage rates.

  • Banking Turmoil & Fed’s Decision: Recent decision by Fed to skip the interest rate hikes has helped bring down the mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks.
  • Stabilizing Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates falling from record highs of 7.08% have helped buyers enter the housing market.
  • Buyers Are Entering the Market, Albeit Slowly: Most buyers are still reluctant to enter the market, as mortgage purchase applications were down by 31% YoY. However, applications during the week ending April 7 increased 8% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted.

Compared to Other States, Alabama Still Won’t Fall as Much: Alabama has distinct advantages.

  • Relatively Low Inventory: As per April 2023 data, we have only 2.0 months’ supply available. Also, there were 19,223 homes for sale in Alabama, up 4.8% year over year.
  • Lack of New Listings: The number of newly listed homes was 5,992 and down 18.5% year over year.
  • Low Foreclosure Rate: A majority of homeowners own significant equity in their homes.
  • Strict Lending Standards: Lenders have high standards for borrowers today, which require most homebuyers to maintain a high credit score for buying homes.

» How to Buy a House in Alabama with Bad Credit: Check out how you can buy a home with credit scores of 500 or lower.

Should I Sell Now or Wait?

Only 10% of homeowners believe that now is a good time to sell a home. Home prices are rising steadily as the market warms up. Median home prices were down by 0.65% YoY in April 2023.

However, sellers can benefit from selling a house in Alabama now, if:

  • Mortgage Interest Rates Predicted to Rise: Mortgage rates are relatively high at 6.79%, and may continue to rise. It may be a good time to sell now before this happens.
  • You Need to Relocate or Downsize: If you’ve got another job, decided to retire, or downsize, then this might be the right time to sell.

» Best Time to Sell a House in Alabama: Check out the times when you can get the best deal on your home!


Should I Buy Now or Wait?

Due to the relatively stable mortgage rates in the past few weeks, more and more buyers are entering the housing market. According to statistics, 23% of people think that now is a good time to buy a house in Alabama.

You can buy a house if you are financially stable and meet the following conditions:

  • You have an Excellent Credit Score: High credit scores (740+) will get you the most favorable mortgage deals, as you are a low-risk borrower with a history of on-time payments.
  • You Have Saved Enough For Down Payments: If you have saved a considerable amount for a down payment, lenders will feel more confident in lending you money.

» Best Time To Buy a House in Alabama: Take a look at when you should buy a home!

iBuyers will Likely Not Survive Past the Next 24 Months:

Real Estate Giants Announced Major Layoffs:

  • Compass announced layoffs in January 2023, September, and June 2022, which impacted more than 15% of the employees.
  • Redfin laid off 862 employees in early November, reducing almost 13% of its workforce.
  • Anywhere Real Estate, Inc. laid off 10% of its workforce in January 2023.
  • Flyhomes laid off 40% of workers in November 2022.
  • Homeward laid off 25% of employees in November 2022 and 20% in August 2022.
  • Orchard cut down 25% of its workforce, affecting about 180 employees.
  • JPMorgan Chase laid off more than 1,000 mortgage employees in June 2022.
  • Knock reportedly laid off 46% of its staff in March 2022.

Real Estate Commissions Will Decline:

The DOJ is investigating commission structures and how they limit competition. Buyers may pay their agents, resulting in reduced commissions.

Several antitrust lawsuits have been filed against NAR lately. Here are the latest updates:

  • Moehrl v. NAR: The Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions
  • Sitzer/Burnett v. NAR: The Second Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions
  • REX v. NAR: Check out why Jack Ryan’s REX Real Estate is suing NAR and Zillow in this video
Housing Market MetricsCurrent Housing Market Trend 2023Comparison YoY
1. Median Sale Price
🔴 -0.65% YoY
2. Number of Homes Sold
🔴 -24.3% YoY
3. Homes Sold Above List Price
🔴 -16.7 pt
4. Homes Sold With Price Drops
🟢 +12.0 pt
5. Homes Sold Sale-to-List Price
🔴 -2.2 pt
6. Median Days on Market
46 days
🟢 +13 days YoY


The current Alabama housing market statistics reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. Home prices dropped across the state as sales declined.

After a decade of steady home price gains, the market has reached the affordability limit for many homeowners.

Alabama Housing Market Statistics

  • Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Alabama is $273,500, down by 0.65% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 98%, with a decline of 2.2 pt. YoY as of April 2023.
  • Home Sales: As per April 2023 data, home sales are at a low of 24.3% YoY. In April 2023, 4,833 homes were sold, down from 6,385 in April 2022.
  • Average Rent Prices: An average tenant pays $1,274 as rent in 2023.
  • Pending Sales: Pending home sales grew in February by 0.8% for the third consecutive month. There are currently 6,306 pending listings for sale in Alabama.
  • Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 46 days, up by 13 days YoY.

Will Home Prices Drop in the Second Quarter of 2023?

No. In the second quarter of 2023, NAR experts predict an 8.08% rise in the median sale price, which is down 2.5% YoY. The housing market will continue to warm up between high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.

As per Zillow’s Alabama housing market forecast, the national Zillow home value index rose by 4.4% in March 2023. Over the next year, it is expected to rise by 0.6%. NAR predicts 4.78 million existing home sales in 2023.

Will the Housing Market Crash in Alabama?

Several economists believe the housing market will slow down in 2023, but not crash. As the mortgage rates are stabilizing now after the recent bank crisis, more buyers feel confident to enter the housing market.

Let’s look at why most experts believe that the housing market in Alabama is not going to crash.

5 Reasons Why the Housing Market is Unlikely to Crash

  1. Low Months of Supply: As per April 2023 data, only 2.6 months’ supply is available. This scarcity of inventory explains why many buyers need to bid over the listing price. According to the law of supply-demand, it is predicted that home prices will remain stable for now.
  2. Low Newly Constructed Housing Supply: The supply of newly constructed houses has yet to return to pre-2007 levels. Also, there’s no way for homebuyers to buy land, get regulatory approval, and increase the supply quickly.
  3. New Buyers Entering the Market: There’s a strong demand for homes across various demographics. Millennials and Hispanics are in their prime buying years. As a result, there’s still a limited amount of inventory available.
  4. Strict Lending Standards: There were several cases of liar loans in 2007 where anyone could get a mortgage without a credit check. Today, mortgage lenders in Alabama place high standards on borrowers, and most home buyers are required to have an excellent credit score.
  5. Fewer Foreclosures: A majority of homeowners own significant equity in their homes. The personal balance sheets of homeowners are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago. As a result, the threat of rising foreclosures in Alabama is low.

Is 2023 a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?

2023 is unusual compared to previous housing market trends. That’s why, it’s difficult to gauge whether it is a seller’s or a buyer’s market.

Due to relatively high mortgage rates, buyers entering the market are few. Likewise, low inventory and a reduced number of listings indicate sellers’ reluctance to sell.

In the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s fall, daily average mortgage rates fell from 7% to 6.5%. Likewise, home prices across the nation fell by 1.8% over the span of a weekend, which saw a sudden spike of 7% in mortgage applications.

After Fed’s recent announcement, the average weekly mortgage rates dropped to 6.42% and 6.32% in the next week. Further, mortgage purchase applications grew by 17% in February-March.

Alabama Housing Market Predictions 2023

The housing market majorly depends upon the economy’s health. As economies slow, the money supply becomes limited. It becomes difficult to borrow money, fewer home buyers enter the AL housing market.

The national unemployment rate remains at 3.7% in May 2023. The private sector in various states also shows positive job growth, says ADP.

Here are a few real estate housing market predictions for 2023 based on the experts’ forecast.

  • Mortgage Rates Stabilizing: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.79% for the month of June, 2023, down from 6.42% the previous week. However, these rates are still lower than last year’s peak of 7.08%.
  • Fewer Home Sales: Reports predict far fewer home sales for the remainder of 2023. Compared to last year, number of homes being sold plunged by 24.3%.
  • Low Home Prices: Home prices will remain low compared to last year, falling by 2.5% in most markets.
  • Stable Housing Affordability: According to NAR’s chief economist, rates will remain stable for existing homes during 2023, and approx 4.78 million existing homes will be sold.
  • iBuyers Likely to Buy Homes Below Market Value: During the past year, house flipping profits have fallen by 18.4%. Top iBuyers like Opendoor reported huge losses last quarter. Lastly, Zillow and Redfin shut down their iBuyer services in 2021 and 2022.

Are We in a Housing Bubble Now?

Experts would agree that a housing bubble does exist. A housing market bubble refers to a steep incline in prices with increasing demand and limited supply. Home prices have been steadily rising for the last two years. Inventory is still low, standing at 2.6 months’ supply.

Mortgage interest rates touched a record high, and there’s a sharp decline in the number of home sales at 24.3% YoY. Lastly, there has been a gradual decline in homebuyer interest.

Alabama Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years

Home prices have risen by 58.5% in the past 5 years. This exponential growth is expected to decline gradually in the coming years.

As mortgage rates continue to increase, homebuyers will delay their purchase. There will be low demand for housing, and the home value growth rate will decrease.

Should I Sell My AL Home Now or Wait?

10% of homeowners believe that now is a good time to sell a home. Home prices are still at record highs, but some experts predict that many markets will decline by 5% to 10%.

If you are in a market where home prices are still high, this might be a good time to sell a house in Alabama. You can sell your house in the following circumstances:

  • Before the Mortgage Rates Touch Record Highs: Mortgage rates may touch 7.8% in the coming year as the Fed tries to control inflation. Compared to 1971, the present rate could reach an average of 8% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. As interest rates are still low, many prospective buyers may enter the market now rather than later.
  • You Need to Upsize or Downsize: Significant changes in family dynamics may require you to sell your property and move to a different one.
  • You Need to Relocate: If you’ve got a new job or have decided to retire, or relocate to a new state, there is no way around selling. The best time to sell a house is when you’re ready to move.

» For Sale By Owner Homes in Alabama: Are you relocating to Alabama? Check out homes for sale near you.

Tips to Sell Your AL Home In A Slow Market

  • Price Your Home Competitively: Inventory starts to rise in a slow real estate market. It is better to price your home competitively and get the best deal and quick offers.
  • Offer Incentives & Seller Credit: You can offer to pay the AL buyer’s closing costs, reduce repair costs, or provide a transferable home warranty as an incentive. If you can’t afford any of these, you can sell your house as is in Alabama.
  • List on the Open Market: When you list on MLS in Alabama, your property gets the best market exposure. And that means inviting offers from all types of buyers, investors and cash home buyers. A Flat Fee MLS Alabama listing service is the fastest way to list on the MLS.
  • Sell to Cash Home Buyers: Cash home buyers in Alabama will make instant cash offers on your house. Although these companies can help you sell your home fast, they offer a lot less than your home’s fair market value.

Tips to Sell Your AL Home in Hot Market

Should I Buy a AL Home Now or Wait?

According to statistics, 77% of people think that now is a bad time to buy a house in Alabama. This is mainly because of the relatively high mortgage rates in the past few weeks, which allow only a few buyers with strong financial conditions to enter the market.

If you’re planning to buy now, plan your finances well and make sure you have 5 to 6 months of savings after you put your down payment.

Tips for Buying a AL Home in a Slow Market

  • Consider the Value of the Property: A slow market is the buyer’s market. There is a high chance that the home values may decrease before it starts to increase again.
  • Don’t Buy at the Lowest Price: Alabama house buyers should remain cautious since sellers may conceal major defects. Get a home inspection report before you buy any house that’s too cheap to be true. Otherwise, you can end up with a bad investment.
  • Don’t Invest in Properties for the Short Run: If you’re not planning to stay in a real estate property for a long time, do not buy it. Buying a home solely for selling will only increase inventory. This won’t be beneficial in a slow real estate market.

Should you buy or rent in 2023’s slow housing market?

A detailed break down of the costs of buying vs. renting to help you decide what’s best!

Tips for Buying a AL Home in a Hot Market

  • Research Local Market: The Alabama real estate housing market is highly localized, as market trends vary from region to region.
  • Lower Your Debt: Lowering your debt-to-income ratio will help you easily qualify for a mortgage preapproval when applying for a loan.
  • Increase Your Earning Potential: 60% of workers who switched jobs last year earned more money in their new positions, beating inflation. Despite the economic downturn and rising mortgage rates, you must look for opportunities to boost your income.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author to be reliable. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serves as the basis of any investment decision. It has been provided to you solely for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Is the housing market going to crash in Alabama?

Most probably, no. Here are 5 reasons why the housing market is unlikely to crash in Alabama : (1) Low months of supply. (2) Low newly constructed housing supply. (3) New buyers are entering the market. (4) Strict lending standards. (5) Fewer foreclosures.

2. What are the real estate housing market 2023 predictions?

The predictions for 2023's Alabama housing market are: (1) Mortgage rates may stabilize between 6% to 6.5%. (2) Number of home sales may be less. (3) Home prices may stay low. (4) Housing affordability will remain stable. (5) iBuyers are likely to buy homes for lower than the market value.

3. Are home prices dropping in Alabama?

Yes. Based on year-on-year changes in home prices, home prices in Alabama were down by 0.6% in April 2023.

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