9 min read Mar 15, 2024

Oregon Real Estate Market: Predictions for 2024

Oregon homes continued to sell at eye-popping prices last month. The median home sale price rose 3.9% year-over-year from $464,200 to $482,200 in January. The number of homes sold also increased by 174 homes to 2,546.

Interest rates are at 7.28%, but is Oregon still a seller’s market? Let’s look at the facts.

Redmond homes sold for a median sale price of $503,887 in January, up 21.4% year-over-year. Homes in Tigard sold for a median sale price of $663,500, a 15.4% increase year-over-year.

Interest rates are at record highs, with few home buyers. But the inventory is so low that 21.20% of homes sold above the list price!

  • If you are a home buyer: You can avoid bidding wars and avail seller concessions if you buy a home now. The 7.8% interest rate and mortgage payments are significant, but rates are unlikely to drop in the next few months. If they do, you can refi.
  • If you are a home seller: You can lock in Oregon’s high home prices. The scarcity of homes in OR makes it a seller’s market. Homes listed on MLS sell faster and for 17.5% more than off-MLS homes. That could be thousands of dollars in additional proceeds if you sell via Houzeo.

The current Oregon real estate market statistics don’t reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. Home sales and property prices in Oregon increased despite 2023’s slow market.

So, How is the Real Estate Market in Oregon?

Swell! Home values in Oregon rose by 39.6% in the last 5 years. Home sales increased by 7.3% in January 2024 YoY despite the mortgage rate climbing to 7.28%! So, Oregon’s housing market is strong, if not bullish.

Even if mortgage rates continue to increase alarmingly, home sales will not falter. So, if you want to sell a Oregon property, now is the right time to list it on MLS.

👉 List Your Oregon Home for Sale: Would-be buyers and buyer agents scour the MLS for turnkey properties. Start your listing for FREE!

Oregon Real Estate Market Statistics

  • Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Oregon is $482,200, up by 3.8% YoY. In 2024, experts predict the median sale price will increase due to the tight inventory. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 98.30%, with a decline of 0.8 pt YoY compared to January 2023.
  • Home Sales: As per January 2024 data, home sales increased by 7.3% YoY! In January 2023, 2,546 homes were sold, up from 2,372 in January 2023.
  • Average Rent Prices: Rental costs vary statewide. An average tenant in Bend pays $1,874, while the one living in Newberg pays $1,937.
  • Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 54 days, up by 1 day YoY.
  • Pending Sales: The number of homes for sale declined by 6% YoY compared to 2023. Currently, there are 11,568 homes for sale in Oregon.
  • Months of Supply: The average months of supply is 3 month. OR’s demand can’t be satiated with the low supply. OR’s house scarcity is worse than the national housing market.

Oregon Housing Market Predictions 2024

Oregonians have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for Oregon’s housing market:

  1. Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024: Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 will come back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to a cheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted that baby boomers looking to downsize will also add up to 30 million housing units. Yowaza!
  2. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024: Mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to 7.35% in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to 3.2%. We think the rates will remain above 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.
  3. The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise: The historically high interest rates averted buyers in 2023. But mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.
  4. Home Prices Will Continue to Rise: Home prices rose steadily in the top metros across OR YoY, reaching $482K in January 2024. Experts predict home prices will continue to rise until the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.
  5. New Home Constructions Sales Will Increase: 12.3% of homes purchased in September were new homes, the highest since 2022. Home builders offered $30,000 worth of concessions to attract buyers in 2023. We think builders and sellers will compete for buyers in 2024.
  6. iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers: iBuyers offered 104.1% of market value in 2021. They offered 86% in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad have lost billions of dollars in 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.
Bonus Prediction: Buyer Broker Commissions Will Be Negotiable!

In a shocking turn of events, the jury in Missouri awarded more than $5 billion in damages to the Sitzer-Burnett plaintiffs. This motivated nationwide home sellers to file grievances against NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.

NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule or Participation Rule states that listing brokers must offer competitive compensation to buyer agents if they want to list properties on an NAR-affiliated MLS.

Sitzer/Burnett v. NAR

The Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions

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Lawsuits like Moehrl, Gibson, Batton, Nosalek, and Batton 2 challenge the Participation Rule. They accuse NAR and other top real estate companies of colluding and conspiring to keep agent commissions high.

If the jury also finds the defendants guilty in these cases, buyer agent compensation may change. Buyer agents may become obsolete by 2025! Phew.

While buyer agents are unlikely to be obsolete in 2024, they may be open to negotiating commissions. That’s probably how they will still have some skin in the game.

When Will the Housing Market Crash in Oregon?

A housing market crash in the Beaver State is unlikely.

Oregon’s robust economy, diverse job market, and affordable cost of living will continue to attract businesses and individuals seeking new opportunities.

Bend’s population has increased by 8% since 2017, reaching around 102,000 residents in 2023. Medford is the second fastest growing city in Oregon, with its population surging 6% to nearly 86,400.

Oregon is a haven for several businesses and industries. Several cities offer a variety of fun activities, such as visiting parks, savoring local cuisine, and exploring arts plus entertainment.

Oregon’s job market is also strong. The unemployment rate is at 3.70%. The average cost of living in Oregon is $47,779. The median household income is $73,000. Living near the rolling hills and verdant forests of Oregon is SO AFFORDABLE. It is unlikely that Oregon’s housing market would crash anytime soon.

2024: Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

2024 will be a terrific market for sellers. (And buyers, too!)

Home prices in Oregon are rising and will continue to rise till the supply-demand dynamic changes. The number of houses for sale in OR was only 11,568 in January 2024. There is very limited inventory to satiate the demand from house hunters. This also makes it the best time to sell a house in Oregon.

In fact, after the mortgage rate plummeted from a two-decade-high rate of 8% to 7.28% in November, new listings rose. This shows that those who refused to sell due to mortgage rate lock are finally acclimatizing to 7% rates. Come Spring 2024, more homeowners will follow suit and list properties on Oregon MLS.

As home listings in Oregon increase, home shoppers hugging the sidelines will also return. In fact, the recent uptick in mortgage applications shows that buyers are returning.

House hunters who could not find affordable homes in 2023 will also start shopping in 2024. The demand for Oregon houses will increase – and that’s why sellers may be able to dominate the market.

However, new builds will compete for attention from buyers. Home builders have persuaded buyers to buy new construction homes with mortgage buydowns worth $30K in 2023! Builders will continue offering concessions in 2024, and home sellers may have to wage wars against them.

Listings of new constructions, baby boomers looking to downsize, and desperate home sellers will flood the market in 2024. The properties for sale in Oregon will increase. So, whether you are looking for a condo in Portland or seeking to live in a co-op in Medford, you will find your dream home next spring.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation. Houzeo doesn’t provide any legal or financial advice. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision.

Frequently Asked Questions about Oregon Real Estate Market

When will the housing market crash in Oregon?

Not for the next few years. Oregon's housing market will not crash in 2024. Despite 2023's skyrocketing interest payments and soaring home prices, Oregonians have managed to keep the market afloat.

What are the real estate housing market 2024 predictions for Oregon?

2024 will be a stellar market for Oregonians. Here's our 2024 forecast for Oregon housing market are: (1) Home sellers will return to the market come Spring 2024. (2) Number of houses for sale will increase (3) Property prices in Oregon will increase marginally (4) Mortgage rates will stabilize in the latter half of 2024 (5) iBuyers will buy homes for lower than their fair market value. (6) Buyer agent commissions will be negotiable!

Are home prices dropping in Oregon?

No, the property prices in Oregon were up by 1.1% YOY in January 2023. However, you can still find some of the cheapest places to live in Oregon. With a 39.6% rise in the past five years, exploring budget-friendly cities is crucial amid the current scarcity of available properties in OR.

Is it a good time to buy a house in Oregon?

Yes! Currently, there are very few buyers in the market compared to the supply of homes in Oregon. The soaring interest rates has kept buyers at bay, so you can avoid bidding wars. As the mortgage rate stabilizes in 2024, more buyers will return, so we'd recommend you to buy a house now. If mortgage payments burn a hole in your pocket, you can always refinance.

» Best Time to Buy a House in Oregon: Find out the best time to buy a Oregon property & plan your finances accordingly.

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