The Florida housing market is experiencing a major shift. The median sale price increased by 3.2% in March 2023 year-on-year, and the number of homes sold dropped by 19.7%. New buyers are starting to enter the market as mortgage rates are falling week on week, currently at 6.27%.
While the housing market in Florida is showing signs of warming up, it is still threatened by a possible rise in interest rates and a housing market recession.
Florida Housing Market Update 💣
- Buyers Have More of an Upper Hand: Florida was the hottest market post-pandemic, but it has significantly slowed down. In 2023, experts forecast that the Florida home prices may fall down to 20%.
- Mortgage Rates Have Almost Doubled: Mortgage rates almost doubled from April 2021’s 3.12% to 6.27% for the week ending on April 13, 2023.
- Sellers are Coming Back, but Slowly: The number of listings dropped by 14.9% in March 2023.
- It’s Taking Longer to Sell: Florida homes stayed on the market for an average of 49 days, up from 24 days from last year.
FL Real Estate Market: At a Glance
Real Estate Market Updates
The Florida real estate market shows signs of declining buyer demand.
- 288.9% Longer Median Days: The median time to contract increased to 35 days from 9 days in March 2023, which is 288.9% higher.
- 115.8% Increase in Housing Inventory: In March 2023, the inventory (active listings) surged from 28,436 to 61,376.
- 24.5% Lower Cash Sales: Investors dislike such a slow market, and that’s evident from the fact that cash home sales are 24.5% lower than last year.
- Mortgage Rates at 6.27%: Mortgage interest rates are slowly coming down, currently standing at 6.27%.
- 4.8% Rise in Median Sale Prices: The median sale price has increased by 4.8% compared to February 2022.
👉 Our Take: Although the overall inventory is growing, home prices are still up 3.2% YoY in Florida. Florida’s low cost of living and easy tax policies are attracting more people. This is why market experts remain optimistic about the Florida real estate market.
» Housing Market Predictions: Here are 13 predictions for 2023’s soft real estate market.
Short answer, no.
Several economists believe the housing market will slow down in 2023, but not crash. The Fed will play an important role in the housing market’s future, as it tries to lower inflation by increasing mortgage rates.
- Banking Turmoil & Fed’s Decision: Recent decision by Fed to skip the interest rate hikes has helped bring down the mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks.
- Stabilizing Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates falling from record highs of 7.08% have helped buyers enter the housing market.
- Buyers Are Entering the Market, Albeit Slowly: Most buyers are still reluctant to enter the market, as mortgage purchase applications were down by 31% YoY. However, applications during the week ending April 7 increased 8% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted.
Compared to Other States, Florida Still Won’t Fall as Much: Florida has distinct advantages.
- Relatively Low Inventory: As per March 2023 data, we have only 2.8 months’ supply available. This scarcity of inventory explains why many buyers need to bid over the listing price.
- Lack of Newly Constructed Housing Supply: New home construction in February 2023 was marginally up by 12.2% from the January estimate and 12.8% from February 2022.
- Several New Home Buyers: There’s a demand for homes in FL because of weather, cultural diversity, vacation lifestyle, and lower cost of living.
- Low Foreclosure Rate: A majority of homeowners own significant equity in their homes.
- Strict Lending Standards: Lenders have high standards for borrowers today, which require most homebuyers to maintain a high credit score for buying homes.
» How to Buy a House in Florida with Bad Credit: Check out how you can buy a home with credit scores of 500 or lower.
Should I Sell Now or Wait?
Only 10% of homeowners believe that now is a good time to sell a home. Home prices are rising steadily as the market warms up. Median home prices were up by 3.2% YoY in March 2023.
However, sellers can benefit from selling a house in Florida now, if:
- Mortgage Interest Rates Predicted to Rise: Mortgage rates are relatively high at 6.27%, and may continue to rise. It may be a good time to sell now before this happens.
- You Need to Relocate or Downsize: If you’ve got another job, decided to retire, or downsize, then this might be the right time to sell.
» Best Time to Sell a House in Florida: Check out the times when you can get the best deal on your home!
Should I Buy Now or Wait?
Due to the relatively stable mortgage rates in the past few weeks, more and more buyers are entering the housing market. According to statistics, 59% of people think that now is a good time to buy a house in Florida.
You can buy a house if you are financially stable and meet the following conditions:
- You have an Excellent Credit Score: High credit scores (740+) will get you the most favorable mortgage deals, as you are a low-risk borrower with a history of on-time payments.
- You Have Saved Enough For Down Payments: If you have saved a considerable amount for a down payment, lenders will feel more confident in lending you money.
» Best Time To Buy a House in Florida: Take a look at when you should buy a home!
Florida closed 15% fewer sales in March 2023 than last year.
iBuyers will Likely Not Survive Past the Next 24 Months:
- Opendoor lost $1.35 billion in 2022, compared with $662 million in 2021. Following this incident, Opendoor laid off 560 employees in April 2023, impacting 22% of the workforce.
- Offerpad reduced its staff by 7% in November 2022.
- Zillow, Ribbon, and Redfin have shut down their iBuyer services, and the remaining players reported huge losses in 2022’s last quarter.
Real Estate Giants Announced Major Layoffs:
- Compass announced layoffs in January 2023, September, and June 2022, which impacted more than 15% of the employees.
- Redfin laid off 862 employees in early November, reducing almost 13% of its workforce.
- Anywhere Real Estate, Inc. laid off 10% of its workforce in January 2023.
- Flyhomes laid off 40% of workers in November 2022.
- Homeward laid off 25% of employees in November 2022 and 20% in August 2022.
- Orchard cut down 25% of its workforce, affecting about 180 employees.
- JPMorgan Chase laid off more than 1,000 mortgage employees in June 2022.
- Knock reportedly laid off 46% of its staff in March 2022.
Real Estate Commissions Will Decline:
The DOJ is investigating commission structures and how they limit competition. Buyers may pay their agents, resulting in reduced commissions.
Several antitrust lawsuits have been filed against NAR lately. Here are the latest updates:
- Moehrl v. NAR: The Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions
- Sitzer/Burnett v. NAR: The Second Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions
- REX v. NAR: Check out why Jack Ryan’s REX Real Estate is suing NAR and Zillow in this video
Florida Real Estate Market Trends
|Housing Market Metrics||Current Housing Market Trend 2023||Comparison YoY|
|1. Median Sale Price||🟢 +3.2% YoY|
|2. Number of Homes Sold||🔴 -19.7% YoY|
|3. Homes Sold Above List Price||🔴 -26.6 pt|
|4. Homes Sold With Price Drops||🟢 +16.3 pt|
|5. Homes Sold Sale-to-List Price||🔴 -3.0 pt|
|6. Median Days on Market||🟢 +24 days YoY|
Source: Redfin.com | fred.stlouisfed.org | Zillow.com
The current Florida housing market statistics reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. As home sales declined across the state, home prices ascended.
After a decade of steady home price gains, the market has reached the affordability limit for many homeowners.
Florida Housing Market Statistics
- Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Florida is $400,000, up by 3.2% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 97.1%, with a decline of 3.0 pt YoY as of March 2023.
- Home Sales: As per March 2023 data, home sales are at a low of 19.7% YoY. In March 2023, 37,552 homes were sold, down from 46,784 in March 2022.
- Average Rent Prices: Florida leads the nation with a 29% increase in average rental costs in 2022. An average tenant pays $1,635 as rent.
- Pending Sales: Pending home sales grew in February by 0.8% for the third consecutive month. There are currently 70,439 pending listings for sale in Florida.
- Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 49 days, up by 24 days YoY.
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Will Home Prices Drop in the Second Quarter of 2023?
No. In the second quarter of 2023, NAR experts predict an 8.08% rise in the median sale price, which is down 2.5% YoY. The housing market will continue to warm up between high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
As per Zillow’s Florida housing market forecast, the national Zillow home value index rose by 4.4% in February 2023. Over the next year, it is expected to rise by 0.6%. NAR predicts 4.78 million existing home sales in 2023.
Will the Housing Market Crash in Florida?
Several economists believe the housing market will slow down in 2023, but not crash. As the mortgage rates are stabilizing now after the recent bank crisis, more buyers feel confident to enter the housing market.
Let’s look at why most experts believe that the housing market in Florida is not going to crash.
5 Reasons Why the Housing Market is Unlikely to Crash
- Low Months of Supply: As per March 2023 data, only 2.9 months’ supply is available. This scarcity of inventory explains why many buyers need to bid over the listing price. According to the law of supply-demand, it is predicted that home prices will remain stable for now.
- Low Newly Constructed Housing Supply: The supply of newly constructed houses has yet to return to pre-2007 levels. Also, there’s no way for homebuyers to buy land, get regulatory approval, and increase the supply quickly.
- New Buyers Entering the Market: There’s a strong demand for homes across various demographics. Millennials and Hispanics are in their prime buying years. As a result, there’s still a limited amount of inventory available.
- Strict Lending Standards: There were several cases of liar loans in 2007 where anyone could get a mortgage without a credit check. Today, mortgage lenders in Florida place high standards on borrowers, and most home buyers are required to have an excellent credit score.
- Fewer Foreclosures: A majority of homeowners own significant equity in their homes. The personal balance sheets of homeowners are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago. As a result, the threat of rising foreclosures in Florida is low.
Is 2023 a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?
2023 is unusual compared to previous housing market trends. That’s why, it’s difficult to gauge whether it is a seller’s or a buyer’s market.
Due to relatively high mortgage rates, buyers entering the market are few. Likewise, low inventory and a reduced number of listings indicate sellers’ reluctance to sell.
In the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s fall, daily average mortgage rates fell from 7% to 6.5%. Likewise, home prices across the nation fell by 1.8% over the span of a weekend, which saw a sudden spike of 7% in mortgage applications.
After Fed’s recent announcement, the average weekly mortgage rates dropped to 6.42% and 6.32% in the next week. Further, mortgage purchase applications grew by 17% in February-March.
Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023
The housing market majorly depends upon the economy’s health. As economies slow, the money supply becomes limited. It becomes difficult to borrow money, fewer home buyers enter the FL housing market.
However, due to Florida’s high inbound rate, its housing market will still see a slight upward trend even during the slow months.
Florida’s job market is also strong. The unemployment rate is at 2.6%, remaining stable as it was in January 2023. The private sector’s over-the-year job growth rate was 4.6%.
Here are a few real estate housing market predictions for 2023 based on the experts’ forecast.
- Mortgage Rates Stabilizing at 6 to 6.5%: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.27% for the week ending on April 13, 2023, down from 6.42% the previous week. However, these rates are still lower than last year’s peak of 7.08%.
- Fewer Home Sales: Realtor.com’s report predicts far fewer home sales in the remaining quarters of 2023. Compared to last year, home sales will plunge by 18.8% in Q2.
- Low Home Prices: Home prices will remain low compared to last year, falling by 2.5% in most markets.
- Stable Housing Affordability: According to NAR’s chief economist, rates will remain stable for existing homes during 2023, and approx 4.78 million existing homes will be sold.
- iBuyers Likely to Buy Homes Below Market Value: During the past year, house flipping profits have fallen by 18.4%. Top iBuyers like Opendoor reported huge losses last quarter. Lastly, Zillow and Redfin shut down their iBuyer services in 2021 and 2022.
Are We in a Housing Bubble Now?
Experts would agree that a housing bubble does exist. A housing market bubble refers to a steep incline in prices with increasing demand and limited supply. Home prices have been steadily rising for the last two years. Inventory is still low, standing at 2.9 months’ supply.
Mortgage interest rates touched a record high, and there’s a sharp decline in the number of home sales at 24.8% YoY. Lastly, there has been a gradual decline in homebuyer interest.
Florida Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years
Home prices have risen by 80% in the past 5 years. This exponential growth is expected to decline gradually in the coming years.
As mortgage rates continue to increase, homebuyers will delay their purchase. There will be low demand for housing, and the home value growth rate will decrease.
Florida’s 10 “Most Overpriced” Housing Markets
1. Homosassa Springs MSA
2. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA
3. Punta Gorda, MSA
4. Vero Beach-Sebastian, MSA
5. Port St. Lucie, MSA
6. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, MSA
7. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, MSA
8. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall Metropolitan Division
9. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, MSA
10. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, MSA
Should I Sell My Home Now or Wait?
10% of homeowners believe that now is a good time to sell a home. Home prices are still at record highs, but some experts predict that many markets will decline by 5% to 10%.
If you are in a market where home prices are still high, this might be a good time to sell a house in Florida. You can sell your house in the following circumstances:
- Before the Mortgage Rates Touch Record Highs: Mortgage rates may touch 7.8% in the coming year as the Fed tries to control inflation. Compared to 1971, the present rate could reach an average of 8% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. As interest rates are still low, many prospective buyers may enter the market now rather than later.
- You Need to Upsize or Downsize: Significant changes in family dynamics may require you to sell your property and move to a different one.
- You Need to Relocate: If you’ve got a new job or have decided to retire, or relocate to a new state, there is no way around selling. The best time to sell a house is when you’re ready to move.
» For Sale By Owner Homes in Florida: Are you relocating to Florida? Check out homes for sale near you.
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Tips to Sell Your Home In A Slow Market
- Price Your Home Competitively: Inventory starts to rise in a slow real estate market. It is better to price your home competitively and get the best deal and quick offers.
- Offer Incentives & Seller Credit: You can offer to pay the buyer’s closing costs, reduce repair costs, or provide a transferable home warranty as an incentive. If you can’t afford any of these, you can sell your house as is in Florida.
- List on the Open Market: When you list on MLS, your property gets the best market exposure. And that means inviting offers from all types of buyers, investors and cash home buyers. A Flat Fee MLS Florida listing service is the fastest way to list on the MLS.
- Sell to Cash Home Buyers: Cash home buyers in Florida will make instant cash offers on your house. Although these companies can help you sell your home fast, they offer a lot less than your home’s fair market value.
Tips to Sell Your Home in Hot Market
- Find the Best Way to Sell: Even if you’re selling your house yourself in Florida or through an agent, we recommend listing on the MLS with FL Flat Fee MLS listing services. The best For Sale By Owner websites in Florida can help you market your house, either for a small fee or even for free.
- Make Quick Repairs: Clean and declutter your home, and make small fixes like repairing a leaky faucet or fixing a shattered window. Know more creative ways to market your house.
- Stage Your Home: Preparing your home for sale, with or without the help of a professional home stager, is home staging. It mainly involves cleaning, depersonalizing, and making your home appealing visually.
Should I Buy a Home Now or Wait?
According to statistics, 79% of people think that now is a bad time to buy a house in Florida. This is mainly because of the relatively high mortgage rates in the past few weeks, which allow only a few buyers with strong financial conditions to enter the market.
If you’re planning to buy now, plan your finances well and make sure you have 5 to 6 months of savings after you put your down payment.
Tips for Buying a Home in a Slow Market
- Consider the Value of the Property: A slow market is the buyer’s market. There is a high chance that the home values may decrease before it starts to increase again.
- Don’t Buy at the Lowest Price: Sellers can conceal major defects and sell a Florida house fast or for cheap. Get a home inspection report before you buy any house that’s too cheap to be true. Otherwise, you can end up with a bad investment.
- Don’t Invest in Properties for the Short Run: If you’re not planning to stay in a real estate property for a long time, do not buy it. Buying a home solely for selling will only increase inventory. This won’t be beneficial in a slow real estate market.
Should you buy or rent in 2023’s slow housing market?
A detailed break down of the costs of buying vs. renting to help you decide what’s best!
Tips for Buying a Home in a Hot Market
- Research Local Market: The Florida real estate housing market is highly localized, as market trends vary from region to region.
- Lower Your Debt: Lowering your debt-to-income ratio will help you easily qualify for a mortgage preapproval when applying for a loan.
- Increase Your Earning Potential: 60% of workers who switched jobs last year earned more money in their new positions, beating inflation. Despite the economic downturn and rising mortgage rates, you must look for opportunities to boost your income.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author to be reliable. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serves as the basis of any investment decision. It has been provided to you solely for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Is the housing market going to crash in Florida?
Most probably, no. Here are 5 reasons why the housing market is unlikely to crash in Florida: (1) Low months of supply. (2) Low newly constructed housing supply. (3) New buyers are entering the market. (4) Strict lending standards. (5) Fewer foreclosures.
2. What are the real estate housing market 2023 predictions for Florida?
The predictions for 2023's Florida housing market are: (1) Mortgage rates may stabilize between 6% to 6.5%. (2) Number of home sales may be less. (3) Home prices may stay low. (4) Housing affordability will remain stable. (5) iBuyers are likely to buy homes for lower than the market value.
3. Are home prices dropping in Florida?
No. Based on year-on-year changes in home prices, home prices in Florida were up by 3.2% in March 2023.
- How Much are Closing Costs on a Home in Florida: The seller and the buyer both pay closing costs. Know them before closing.
- Florida Closing Costs for Seller: Fees and taxes can vary from one county to another. Learn them here.
- Seller Closing Costs Florida Calculator: Want to get an estimate of your net proceeds estimates? Calculate here.
- Closing Cost Calculator Florida Buyer: This calculator gives you an estimate of the closing costs while buying a house.
- Real Estate Market Analysis: Market research is the first step any investor must take before entering the market. Read more to know about it.
- Florida Seller’s Disclosure Statement: Check out our quick and easy guide to seller disclosures in your state.
- Best Real Estate Websites in Florida: Real estate websites will help you sell or buy a house from the comfort of your home. Check out the best ones.
- Flipping Houses in Florida: Read our blog on how to flip and maximize your profits.
- Wholesale Real Estate Florida: Discover how real estate wholesaling laws work.
- Realtors in Florida: Check out the best Realtors in Florida to assist you in your next real estate transaction.
Eager to Know How Houzeo Works?
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An overview of what the platform is all about
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