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9 min read Feb 06, 2024

Idaho Real Estate Market: Predictions for 2024?

The median home price in Idaho was $470,000 in September 2023. Quite close to the last year’s $469,000. Clearly, homes are not gems in Idaho.

Yet 12% of homes sold for more than the list price in the Gem State. Shocking, eh? Given that the number of homes listed on the market declined by 30% YoY from 12,267 to 8,546 homes.

There’s only 2 months of supply left! Does the scarcity of houses make Idaho a seller’s market? Let’s look at the facts.

Boise homes sold for a median sale price of $515,000 in September, up 1.01% year-over-year. Homes in Moscow sold for a median sale price of $465,000, a 19.8% increase year-over-year. There were no markets in Idaho where prices declined year-over-year except, Preston.

Interest rates are at record highs, with few home buyers. But the inventory is so low that 12.2% of homes sold above the list price!

  • If you are a home buyer: You can avoid bidding wars and avail seller concessions if you buy a home now. The 8.5% interest rate and mortgage payments are significant, but rates are unlikely to drop in the next few months. If they do, you can refi.
  • If you are a home seller: You can lock in Idaho’s high home prices. The scarcity of homes in ID makes it a seller’s market. Homes listed on MLS sell faster and for 17.5% more than off-MLS homes. That could be thousands of dollars in additional proceeds if you sell via Houzeo.

The current Idaho real estate market statistics reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. Despite the strong housing demand, home sales tanked. The property prices in Idaho barely increased in 2023.

So, How is the Real Estate Market in Idaho?

Meh! Although home values in Idaho rose by 59% in the last 5 years, it is a horrible market.

Home sales decreased by 10.4% in September 2023 YoY. Maybe due to the mortgage rate climbing to a two-decade high of nearly 8%! And the number of houses for sale in ID was 8,546 in the month, 30% less than in 2022. Holy cow! Idaho’s housing market is bearish.

The decrease in home sales can be attributed to not having enough properties in Gem State. The months of supply is 2 months, which makes ID a seller’s market. So, if you want to sell an Idaho property, now is the right time to list it on MLS.

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Idaho Real Estate Market Statistics

  • Average Home Prices: There is no change in the average median home price in Idaho is $470,000. In 2024, the median sale price will keep increasing marginally due to ID’s tight inventory. The sale-to-list price ratio is at 97.9%, with an increase of 1.4 pt YoY compared to September 2022.
  • Home Sales: As per September 2023 data, home sales decreased by 30% YoY! In September 2023, only 2,279 homes were sold, down from 2,543 in September 2022.
  • Average Rent Prices: Rental costs vary statewide. An average tenant in Moscow pays $1,335, while the one living in Twin Falls pays $1,640.
  • Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 36 days, down 4 days YoY.
  • Pending Sales: The number of homes for sale declined by 30% YoY compared to 2022. Currently, there are 8,546 homes for sale in Idaho.
  • Months of Supply: The average months of supply is 2 months. ID’s demand can’t be satiated with the low supply. ID’s house scarcity is worse than the national housing market.

Idaho Housing Market Predictions 2024

Idahoans have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for Idaho’s housing market:

  1. Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024: Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 will come back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to a cheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted that baby boomers looking to downsize will also add up to 30 million housing units. Yowaza!
  2. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024: Mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to 7.35% in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to 3.2%. We think the rates will remain above 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.
  3. The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise: The historically high interest rates averted buyers in 2023. But mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.
  4. Home Prices Will Continue to Rise: Home prices rose steadily in the top metros across ID YoY, reaching $470K in September 2023. Experts predict home prices will continue to rise until the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.
  5. New Home Constructions Sales Will Increase: Idaho Building Permits Survey, 20,454 new private housing units were authorized increased by 12.8% from 2022. Idaho’s housing market is in high demand owing to a growing population, a low unemployment rate, and a shrunken housing inventory.
  6. iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers: iBuyers offered 104.1% of market value in 2021. They offered 86% in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad have lost billions of dollars in 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.
Bonus Prediction: Buyer Broker Commissions Will Be Negotiable!

In a shocking turn of events, the jury in Missouri awarded more than $5 billion in damages to the Sitzer-Burnett plaintiffs. This motivated nationwide home sellers to file grievances against NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.

NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule or Participation Rule states that listing brokers must offer competitive compensation to buyer agents if they want to list properties on a NAR-affiliated MLS.

Sitzer/Burnett v. NAR

The Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions

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Lawsuits like Moehrl, Gibson, Batton, Nosalek, and Batton 2 challenge the Participation Rule. They accuse NAR and other top real estate companies of colluding and conspiring to keep agent commissions high.

If the jury also finds the defendants guilty in these cases, buyer agent compensation may change. Buyer agents may become obsolete by 2025! Phew.

While buyer agents are unlikely to be obsolete in 2024, they may be open to negotiating commissions. That’s probably how they will still have some skin in the game.

When Will the Housing Market Crash in Idaho?

Even though Americans are moving out of the Gem State, a housing market crash in Idaho is unlikely.

Idaho’s growth rate is the second-highest among all states estimated to be 1.43% per year. The cost of living is $39,800 which is 7% lower than the national average. Idaho’s stunning landscape is a relatively affordable state to live in compared to other states. It is home to employees working in including Micron Technology, Albertsons Companies, and Idaho National Laboratory.

Boise, Idaho’s capital city, has a rapidly growing tech sector. This is attracting young professionals from all over the country to the Gem State. The unemployment 3.1% which is lower than the national average.

People from all over the U.S. are moving to Idaho because of its affordability, lower population density, and strong job market.

2024: Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

2024 will be a terrific market for sellers. (And buyers, too!)

Home prices in Idaho are rising and will continue to rise till the supply-demand dynamic changes. The number of houses for sale in ID was only 25,000 in September 2023. There is very limited inventory to satiate the demand from house hunters. This also makes it the best time to sell a house in Idaho.

In fact, after the mortgage rate plummeted from a two-decade-high rate of 8% to 7.35% in November, new listings rose. This shows that those who refused to sell due to mortgage rate lock are finally acclimatizing to 7% rates. Come Spring 2024, more homeowners will follow suit and list properties on Idaho MLS.

As home listings in Idaho increase, home shoppers hugging the sidelines will also return. In fact, the recent uptick in mortgage applications shows that buyers are returning.

House hunters who could not find affordable homes in 2023 will also start shopping in 2024. The demand for Idaho houses will increase – and that’s why sellers may be able to dominate the market.

However, new builds will compete for attention from buyers. Home builders have persuaded buyers to buy new construction homes with mortgage buydowns worth $30K in 2023! Builders will continue offering concessions in 2024, and home sellers may have to wage wars against them.

Listings of new constructions, baby boomers looking to downsize, and desperate home sellers will flood the market in 2024. The properties for sale in Idaho will increase. So, whether you are looking for a condo in Moscow or seeking to live in a co-op, you will find your dream home next spring.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation. Houzeo doesn’t provide any legal or financial advice. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision.

Frequently Asked Questions about Idaho Real Estate Market

When will the housing market crash in Idaho?

Not for the next few years. Idaho's housing market will not crash in 2024. Despite 2023's skyrocketing interest payments and soaring home prices, Idahoans have managed to keep the market afloat.

What are the real estate housing market 2024 predictions for Idaho?

2024 will be a stellar market for Idahoans. Here's our 2024 forecast for Idaho housing market are: (1) Home sellers will return to the market come Spring 2024. (2) Number of houses for sale will increase (3) Property prices in Idaho will increase marginally (4) Mortgage rates will stabilize in the latter half of 2024 (5) iBuyers will buy homes for lower than their fair market value. (6) Buyer agent commissions will be negotiable!

Are home prices dropping in Idaho?

No, the property prices in Idaho were up by 3.5% YOY in December 2023. However, you can still find some of the cheapest places to live in Idaho. With a 42% rise in the past five years, exploring budget-friendly cities is crucial amid the current scarcity of available properties in ID.

Is it a good time to buy a house in Idaho?

Yes! Currently, there are very few buyers in the market compared to the supply of homes in Idaho. The soaring interest rates has kept buyers at bay, so you can avoid bidding wars. As the mortgage rate stabilizes in 2024, more buyers will return, so we'd recommend you to buy a house now. If mortgage payments burn a hole in your pocket, you can always refinance.

» Best Time to Buy a House in Idaho: Find out the best time to buy a Idaho property & plan your finances accordingly.

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